Estimation Models for HIV/AIDS in China

Summary

Principal Investigator: Sten Vermund
Abstract: [unreadable] DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): China with the world's largest population is facing a potential devastation of the rapidly growing HIV epidemic. Since the multicultural and multiethnic characteristics accompany wide geographic and socio-demographic variations, there is much that is unknown about the scope of HIV risk. Accurate information is a key to any success of disease prevention programs; there is a need to improve the estimates of HIV prevalence and to provide accurate information for prevention. The specific aims of this project are 1) to evaluate critically the quality and the generalizability of data from different sources in selected provinces. 2) to assess the validity of the new Estimation and Projection Package and Workbook Program of UNAIDS/WHO in estimating short-term projections of selected provinces. 3) to improve estimates of the true prevalence of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in selected provinces using the best sources of seroprevalence, surveillance, and modeled data. 4) to assess the epidemic growth rate in the provinces studied and guide the China CDC as to where interventions are most urgently needed. We propose to conduct study over a 2 year period that will be a collaborative effort between China CDC and a US university, which will be complementary to that of WHO, UNAIDS, and USA CDC through China CDC. In first year, we will estimate three selected provinces by synthesizing the results from several different data sources and three statistical estimate procedures. The estimates of HIV prevalence will be made by synthesizing the estimates from three different procedures followed by a comprehensive evaluation/analysis of relevant epidemiologic data and major potential bias elimination. The second year estimation and projection will base on the previous estimate, the updated software and newly available database and more understanding of the variety of parameters and distributions, such as the time of infection, the onset of detectable antibodies, therapeutic benefits, prevention effects, etc. We intend to use the findings to help the China CDC establishing a better estimation model for HIV/AIDS. [unreadable] [unreadable] [unreadable]
Funding Period: 2005-08-15 - 2008-07-31
more information: NIH RePORT

Top Publications

  1. pmc Predictors of unprotected sex among men who have sex with men in Beijing, China
    Xinxu Li
    State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Center for AIDS STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
    Southeast Asian J Trop Med Public Health 39:99-108. 2008
  2. pmc Seroincidence of recent human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infections in China
    Yao Xiao
    National AIDS Reference Laboratory, National Center for AIDS and STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, People s Republic of China
    Clin Vaccine Immunol 14:1384-6. 2007
  3. pmc Early infant human immunodeficiency virus type 1 detection suitable for resource-limited settings with multiple circulating subtypes by use of nested three-monoplex DNA PCR and dried blood spots
    Qi Zhang
    National Center for Women and Children s Health, China Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100013, People s Republic of China
    J Clin Microbiol 46:721-6. 2008
  4. pmc Sources of data for improved surveillance of HIV/AIDS in China
    Yujiang Jia
    Institute for Global Health, School of Medicine, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN 37232 0242, USA
    Southeast Asian J Trop Med Public Health 38:1041-52. 2007
  5. pmc Estimates of HIV prevalence in a highly endemic area of China: Dehong Prefecture, Yunnan Province
    Yujiang Jia
    Institute for Global Health, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, TN 37232, USA
    Int J Epidemiol 37:1287-96. 2008
  6. pmc Risk factors for syphilis and prevalence of HIV, hepatitis B and C among men who have sex with men in Beijing, China: implications for HIV prevention
    Yuhua Ruan
    Epidemiology and Biostatistics Branch, Division of Virology and Immunology, State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, NCAIDS, Chinese CDC, Beijing 100050, People s Republic of China
    AIDS Behav 13:663-70. 2009
  7. pmc Prevalence of HIV infection and predictors for syphilis infection among female sex workers in southern China
    Fan Lu
    National Center for AIDS STD Control and Prevention, China Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, PR China
    Southeast Asian J Trop Med Public Health 40:263-72. 2009
  8. pmc Projecting dynamic trends for HIV/AIDS in a highly endemic area of China: estimation models for Liangshan Prefecture, Sichuan Province
    Li Liu
    Department of Epidemiology, West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, P R China
    Curr HIV Res 7:390-7. 2009

Scientific Experts

  • Fan Lv
  • Yuhua Ruan
  • Li Liu
  • Yujiang Jia
  • Sten H Vermund
  • Fan Lu
  • Xinhua Sun
  • Xinxu Li
  • Qi Zhang
  • Yan Jiang
  • Yao Xiao
  • Huey T Chen
  • Yan Xiao
  • Wei Liu
  • Jianbo Liu
  • Gang Zeng
  • Chunmei Li
  • Lan Wang
  • Holly Cassell
  • Sanguo Zhang
  • Shuangyan Gong
  • Wei Shi
  • Xiaoxi Zhang
  • Jun Yao
  • Yingjie Liu
  • KunXue Hong
  • Jiangping Sun
  • Andrzej Kulczycki
  • Manhong Jia
  • Hui Xing
  • Yuecheng Yang
  • Linhong Wang
  • Pinliang Pan
  • Yiming Shao
  • Duan Song
  • Shuming Tian
  • Liwen Fang
  • Chen Wang
  • Lu Fan
  • Dongliang Li
  • Yi Wei Tang
  • Lin Lu
  • Miao Yu
  • Wenyan Xu
  • Jigang Feng
  • Ellen Funkhouser
  • Minjie Wang

Detail Information

Publications8

  1. pmc Predictors of unprotected sex among men who have sex with men in Beijing, China
    Xinxu Li
    State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Center for AIDS STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
    Southeast Asian J Trop Med Public Health 39:99-108. 2008
    ..Further education, condom promotion, and prevention of sexually transmitted infections should be intensified urgently to combat the rising HIV epidemic among MSM in Beijing...
  2. pmc Seroincidence of recent human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infections in China
    Yao Xiao
    National AIDS Reference Laboratory, National Center for AIDS and STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, People s Republic of China
    Clin Vaccine Immunol 14:1384-6. 2007
    ....
  3. pmc Early infant human immunodeficiency virus type 1 detection suitable for resource-limited settings with multiple circulating subtypes by use of nested three-monoplex DNA PCR and dried blood spots
    Qi Zhang
    National Center for Women and Children s Health, China Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100013, People s Republic of China
    J Clin Microbiol 46:721-6. 2008
    ..7% at 1 to 2 months, and 100% at 3 to 6 months of age. The HIV-1 DNA N3M-PCR assay on DBSs offers a simple and affordable approach for early infant HIV-1 diagnosis in regions with diverse HIV-1 circulating subtypes...
  4. pmc Sources of data for improved surveillance of HIV/AIDS in China
    Yujiang Jia
    Institute for Global Health, School of Medicine, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN 37232 0242, USA
    Southeast Asian J Trop Med Public Health 38:1041-52. 2007
    ..Support for surveillance and strategic analyses can enable policy decision makers to make more effective program choices and mobilize adequate resources to contain HIV...
  5. pmc Estimates of HIV prevalence in a highly endemic area of China: Dehong Prefecture, Yunnan Province
    Yujiang Jia
    Institute for Global Health, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, TN 37232, USA
    Int J Epidemiol 37:1287-96. 2008
    ..Dehong's 1.1 million people confront a serious HIV problem fuelled by injection drug use. The aim of this study is to improve the 2005 estimates of the true status of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Dehong Prefecture...
  6. pmc Risk factors for syphilis and prevalence of HIV, hepatitis B and C among men who have sex with men in Beijing, China: implications for HIV prevention
    Yuhua Ruan
    Epidemiology and Biostatistics Branch, Division of Virology and Immunology, State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, NCAIDS, Chinese CDC, Beijing 100050, People s Republic of China
    AIDS Behav 13:663-70. 2009
    ..Syphilis is now epidemic among Beijing's MSM. Prevention efforts are urgent as HIV prevalence is already near 5%. Education, condom promotion, STD control, and alcohol-related intervention are needed urgently...
  7. pmc Prevalence of HIV infection and predictors for syphilis infection among female sex workers in southern China
    Fan Lu
    National Center for AIDS STD Control and Prevention, China Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, PR China
    Southeast Asian J Trop Med Public Health 40:263-72. 2009
    ..Inconsistent condom use with clients in the past month (AOR = 5.0; 95% CI = 1.8-13.8), less education (OR = 2.6; 95% CI = 1.1-7.4), and HIV infection (AOR = 8.1; 95% CI = 1.1-68.5) were independently associated with syphilis infection...
  8. pmc Projecting dynamic trends for HIV/AIDS in a highly endemic area of China: estimation models for Liangshan Prefecture, Sichuan Province
    Li Liu
    Department of Epidemiology, West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, P R China
    Curr HIV Res 7:390-7. 2009
    ..Prevention investments should target specific interventions toward sub-groups at highest risk, given that both IDUs and men who have sex with men will likely represent a majority of cases and serve as a bridge population...