Affiliation: Institute for Animal Health
- Szmaragd C, Gunn G, Gubbins S. Assessing the consequences of an incursion of a vector-borne disease. II. Spread of bluetongue in Scotland and impact of vaccination. Epidemics. 2010;2:139-147 pubmed publisher..Our epidemiological simulations, based on expert knowledge, highlighted that infection will rarely spread in Scotland after the initial incursion and will be efficiently controlled by vaccination...
- Gubbins S, Szmaragd C, Burgin L, Wilson A, Volkova V, Gloster J, et al. Assessing the consequences of an incursion of a vector-borne disease I. Identifying feasible incursion scenarios for bluetongue in Scotland. Epidemics. 2010;2:148-154 pubmed publisher..These analyses were further refined by considering the spatial and temporal variation in the probability of onward transmission from an initial incursion...